this only works if the censor is not desperate enough to do man in the middle attacks
with domainless fronting he only has to do a man in the middle attack on connections without sni. (assuming this paper is correct https://www.bamsoftware.com/papers/fronting/ i didnt really understand why the domainless variant cant have a fake sni)
the effect off a man in the middle attack could be much smaller than one would expect if the censor uses https stripping.
everyone who doesnt enter an url with https or clicks on a link on an unencrypted or controlled site wont see a certificate warning
if the actual service of a website is being used then it would be impossible to block it without blocking the service even if there is no https
No, this still works because public keys are distributed through back-channels, so MITM in this case isn't possible. I don't think the attack works as you describe. The attacker simply doesn't have the private keys and all clients verify the keys when setting up their Tor circuits.